Archive for May, 2015

Iowa: Smith’s Avian Influenza Event Risk Alert (-1)

May 26, 2015

Deadly avian influenza viruses have affected more than 33 million turkeys, chickens and ducks in more than a dozen states since the start of 2015.

Iowa, which produces 20% of the nation’s eggs (layers), has been hit hard. More than 40% of its egg-laying hens are dead or dying. The high density of layer birds at the egg farms explains why the flu, which can kill 90 percent or more of a flock within 48 hours, has decimated more birds in Iowa than in any other state.
The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in  2012.  In 2014, the U.S. poultry industry produced 8.54 billion broilers, 99.8 billion eggs, and 238  million turkeys. The combined value of production from broilers, eggs, turkeys, and the value of  sales from chickens in 2014 was $48.3 billion, up 9 percent from $44.4 billion in 2013.

South Dakota reported its first possible infection on a chicken farm with 1.3 million birds last Thursday.(See Map)

Smith’s Regulars can contact Pam Kilbourn for quotes on how to immunize investment portfolios using Smith’s Avian Influenza Event Risk Gradings. (pamkilbourn@smithsresearch.net)Avian Influenza

Egg Prices Expected to Increase
China, Japan, and Mexico have banned poultry imports from the United States.  Already, U.S. consumers may have noticed a rise in the price of eggs.

When a egg farm is identified as having the avian flu,  the extermination of the birds requires hiring a company to  gas the entire barn with carbon dioxide.

Even when the Avian flu has been identified at a farm, the hens are still laying eggs in barns that had yet to be emptied.  Those eggs are being sold as a liquid product after undergoing a federally required extra pasteurization.  The liquid eggs are used in many food products, including cakes, ice cream, and cookies.

Once the barns are cleared, a mandatory 28-day period must pass before it is tested. Once the test comes back negative, then the barns can be put back into production.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture believes consumers may see an increase in the price of foods using liquid eggs, too.

Pathogens
HPAI, or “high path” AI, spreads rapidly and is often fatal to chickens and turkeys. The HPAI H5N8 virus originated in Asia and spread rapidly along wild bird migratory pathways during 2014, including the Pacific flyway.  In the Pacific flyway, the H5N8 virus has mixed with North American avian influenza viruses, creating new mixed-origin viruses. These mixed-origin viruses contain the Asian-origin H5 part of the virus, which is highly pathogenic to poultry.

The N parts of these viruses came from native North American avian influenza viruses found in wild birds.  USDA has identified Eurasian H5N8 HPAI and mixed-origin viruses, H5N2 and a novel H5N1, in the  Pacific  Flyway.  The HPAI H5N2 virus strain has been confirmed in several states along three of the four North American  Flyways:  Pacific, Central and Mississippi.

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