Archive for December, 2015

Smith’s US Political Event Risk Alert: Terrorism

December 7, 2015

Smith’s Research & Gradings (SRG) published a U.S. Political Event Risk Alert for terrorism on November 26, 2015.   Only a handful of these alerts have been issued in the past 20 years. Smith’s Research & Gradings was founded in 1992 to provide independent conflict-free credit analytics. Smith’s Grades for municipal bonds are used as part of Smith’s Sentinel System for the protection of America’s critical infrastructure assets. 

Smith’s Terrorism Alert (-1)  26 November 2015  Great Falls, VA  USA


The terrorism attacks in Paris, France on Friday night, 20 of November 2015, will serve to inspire terrorism in the United States and elsewhere around the globe. SRG’s elevated alert status is based on indications that a potential attack may be underway by Daesh (aka ISIL or ISIS).

SRG is watching for terrorists to seek to infiltrate the  United States along the southern border.  Elevated awareness must be given to all flights from Central America, particularly Panama, to Miami and Sarasota.

SRG believes municipal bonds can offer investors significant protections and opportunities to profit if the conflict in the Middle East spins into a more global war.

Shiite/Sunni Conflict
SRG’s alert is not signaled based solely upon the events in Paris. The escalation of the Shiite/Sunni conflict is reaching a critical juncture.

More specifically Smith’s Terrorism Alert is being issued in connection with the potential arming of Saudi Arabia with nuclear bombs from Pakistan.

Years ago, Saudi Arabia entered into a diplomatic agreement with Pakistan, whereby it could request Pakistan deliver four nuclear bombs to the kingdom. The United States of America has never recognized the treaty agreement and is not a party to the document. The treaty was done in conjunction with Saudi Arabia providing $2 bln. of oil to Pakistan during the period of United States sanctions against Pakistan  in the late 1990s.

Even without a formal treaty, the Saudi monarchy is credited with having saved current Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s life. In 2000, the kingdom provided him asylum after the Saudis convinced then-President Pervez Musharraf to release him from jail, where he had been held since the military ousted Sharif in 1999.

Two years ago, SRG was in a chatroom on the darkweb when the delivery of plans for a small “suitcase” atomic bomb were mentioned in connection with the United States sanctions against Russia. The source claimed Russia had designed  and improved plans for a small backpack delivery device.  Pakistan had purchased the plans (for more than $100 mln) and hired the Chinese (PRC) to build several (i.e. many) of these devices, the source claimed.

For more than a year, SRG’s Sentinel System has been monitoring for the development of the Pakistan-Saudi Arabian nuclear bombs.

Earlier this November, Pakistan’s chief of army staff, General Raheel Sharif, made a visit to Saudi Arabia to meet with King Salman in Riyadh, where he stressed Islamabad’s commitment to ensuring the safety and protection of Mecca and Medina, as well as Saudi Arabia’s territorial integrity.

Last week, a source in Riyadh reported an entire floor of the Four Seasons Hotel was being occupied by members of a high level mission from Pakistan. While it is not exactly clear as to the purpose of Pakistan mission, a separate source has indicated the United States of America is working to have Pakistan turnover the control and security of its entire inventory of nuclear bombs to Saudi Arabia.

Meantime, Russia has continued to build its forces in  Syria and form an alliance with Shiite forces, such as members of the Iranian Guard and the Syrian government forces are hardened troop.  In early November, France announced it was sending its nuclear aircraft carrier, Charles de Gaulle, to the eastern Mediterranean Sea to support and coordinate with the Russians. Christened in 2013, the Charles de Gaulle can launch more than 40 planes and is a fearsome fighting machine.

Whenever one considers the Syrian conflict, Jordan figures prominently in the calculations.  The Kingdom of Jordan not only stopped accepting refugees from Syria, but ordered hundreds of thousands be expelled from the camps. The displaced population has turned to Europe for refuge.

Given these events, Daesh is likely to adopt the same approach as Al Quaeda and create a disparate command structure while launching asymmetrical terrorist attacks against the United States.